Posts Tagged ‘business’

Chatbots

Posted: December 1, 2016 in ed tech
Tags: , , , , , , , ,

 

Here’s a conversation I had recently with Cleverbot.

cleverbot

User (me): Hi Cleverbot. What are your views on the future of chatbots in language learning?

Cleverbot: Are you talking to yourself?

User: No, I’m asking you a question.

Cleverbot: Then what’s the question again? I forgot.

User: What are your views on the future of chatbots in language learning?

Cleverbot: Don’t you want me to finish my story?

User: No, I want you to answer my question.

Cleverbot: What is your question?

User: Do you think there is a future for chatbots in language education?

Cleverbot: Sure, if you are talking about the moon.

aliceI also tried to have a conversation with Alice, the avatar from EFL Classroom Bot, listed by Larry Ferlazzo as one of ‘the best online chatbots for practicing English’. I didn’t get any more sense out of her than out of Cleverbot.

Chatbots, apparently, are the next big thing. Again. David Mattin, head of trends and insights at trendwatching.com, writes (in the September 2016 issue of ‘Business Life’) that ‘the chatbot revolution is coming’ and that chatbots are a step towards the dream of an interface between user and technology that is so intuitive that the interface ‘simply fades away’. Chatbots have been around for some time. Remember Clippy – the Microsoft Office bot in the late 1990s – which you had to disable in order to stop yourself punching your computer screen? Since then, bots have become ubiquitous. There have been problems, such as Microsoft’s Tay bot that had to be taken down after sixteen hours earlier this year, when, after interacting with other Twitter users, it developed into an abusive Nazi. But chatbots aren’t going away and you’ve probably interacted with one to book a taxi, order food or attempt to talk to your bank. In September this year, the Guardian described them as ‘the talk of the town’ and ‘hot property in Silicon Valley’.

The real interest in chatbots is not, however, in the ‘exciting interface’ possibilities (both user interface and user experience remain pretty crude), but in the way that they are leaner, sit comfortably with the things we actually do on a phone and the fact that they offer a way of cutting out the high fees that developers have to pay to app stores . After so many start-up failures, chatbots offer a glimmer of financial hope to developers.

It’s no surprise, of course, to find the world of English language teaching beginning to sit up and take notice of this technology. A 2012 article by Ben Lehtinen in PeerSpectives enthuses about the possibilities in English language learning and reports the positive feedback of the author’s own students. ELTJam, so often so quick off the mark, developed an ELT Bot over the course of a hackathon weekend in March this year. Disappointingly, it wasn’t really a bot – more a case of humans pretending to be a bot pretending to be humans – but it probably served its exploratory purpose. duolingoAnd a few months ago Duolingo began incorporating bots. These are currently only available for French, Spanish and German learners in the iPhone app, so I haven’t been able to try it out and evaluate it. According to an infomercial in TechCrunch, ‘to make talking to the bots a bit more compelling, the company tried to give its different bots a bit of personality. There’s Chef Robert, Renee the Driver and Officer Ada, for example. They will react differently to your answers (and correct you as necessary), but for the most part, the idea here is to mimic a real conversation. These bots also allow for a degree of flexibility in your answers that most language-learning software simply isn’t designed for. There are plenty of ways to greet somebody, for example, but most services will often only accept a single answer. When you’re totally stumped for words, though, Duolingo offers a ‘help my reply’ button with a few suggested answers.’ In the last twelve months or so, Duolingo has considerably improved its ability to recognize multiple correct ways of expressing a particular idea, and its ability to recognise alternative answers to its translation tasks. However, I’m highly sceptical about its ability to mimic a real conversation any better than Cleverbot or Alice the EFL Bot, or its ability to provide systematically useful corrections.

My reasons lie in the current limitations of AI and NLP (Natural Language Processing). In a nutshell, we simply don’t know how to build a machine that can truly understand human language. Limited exchanges in restricted domains can be done pretty well (such as the early chatbot that did a good job of simulating an encounter with an evasive therapist, or, more recently ordering a taco and having a meaningless, but flirty conversation with a bot), but despite recent advances in semantic computing, we’re a long way from anything that can mimic a real conversation. As Audrey Watters puts it, we’re not even close.

When it comes to identifying language errors made by language learners, we’re not really much better off. Apps like Grammarly are not bad at identifying grammatical errors (but not good enough to be reliable), but pretty hopeless at dealing with lexical appropriacy. Much more reliable feedback to learners can be offered when the software is trained on particular topics and text types. Write & Improve does this with a relatively small selection of Cambridge English examination tasks, but a free conversation ….? Forget it.

So, how might chatbots be incorporated into language teaching / learning? A blog post from December 2015 entitled AI-powered chatbots and the future of language learning suggests one plausible possibility. Using an existing messenger service, such as WhatsApp or Telegram, an adaptive chatbot would send tasks (such as participation in a conversation thread with a predetermined topic, register, etc., or pronunciation practice or translation exercises) to a learner, provide feedback and record the work for later recycling. At the same time, the bot could send out reminders of work that needs to be done or administrative tasks that must be completed.

Kat Robb has written a very practical article about using instant messaging in English language classrooms. Her ideas are interesting (although I find the idea of students in a F2F classroom messaging each other slightly bizarre) and it’s easy to imagine ways in which her activities might be augmented with chatbot interventions. The Write & Improve app, mentioned above, could deploy a chatbot interface to give feedback instead of the flat (and, in my opinion, perfectly adequate) pop-up boxes currently in use. Come to think of it, more or less any digital language learning tool could be pimped up with a bot. Countless revisions can be envisioned.

But the overwhelming question is: would it be worth it? Bots are not likely, any time soon, to revolutionise language learning. What they might just do, however, is help to further reduce language teaching to a series of ‘mechanical and scripted gestures’. More certain is that a lot of money will be thrown down the post-truth edtech drain. Then, in the not too distant future, this latest piece of edtech will fall into the trough of disillusionment, to be replaced by the latest latest thing.

 

 

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In ELT circles, ‘behaviourism’ is a boo word. In the standard history of approaches to language teaching (characterised as a ‘procession of methods’ by Hunter & Smith 2012: 432[1]), there were the bad old days of behaviourism until Chomsky came along, savaged the theory in his review of Skinner’s ‘Verbal Behavior’, and we were all able to see the light. In reality, of course, things weren’t quite like that. The debate between Chomsky and the behaviourists is far from over, behaviourism was not the driving force behind the development of audiolingual approaches to language teaching, and audiolingualism is far from dead. For an entertaining and eye-opening account of something much closer to reality, I would thoroughly recommend a post on Russ Mayne’s Evidence Based ELT blog, along with the discussion which follows it. For anyone who would like to understand what behaviourism is, was, and is not (before they throw the term around as an insult), I’d recommend John A. Mills’ ‘Control: A History of Behavioral Psychology’ (New York University Press, 1998) and John Staddon’s ‘The New Behaviorism 2nd edition’ (Psychology Press, 2014).

There is a close connection between behaviourism and adaptive learning. Audrey Watters, no fan of adaptive technology, suggests that ‘any company touting adaptive learning software’ has been influenced by Skinner. In a more extended piece, ‘Education Technology and Skinner’s Box, Watters explores further her problems with Skinner and the educational technology that has been inspired by behaviourism. But writers much more sympathetic to adaptive learning, also see close connections to behaviourism. ‘The development of adaptive learning systems can be considered as a transformation of teaching machines,’ write Kara & Sevim[2] (2013: 114 – 117), although they go on to point out the differences between the two. Vendors of adaptive learning products, like DreamBox Learning©, are not shy of associating themselves with behaviourism: ‘Adaptive learning has been with us for a while, with its history of adaptive learning rooted in cognitive psychology, beginning with the work of behaviorist B.F. Skinner in the 1950s, and continuing through the artificial intelligence movement of the 1970s.’

That there is a strong connection between adaptive learning and behaviourism is indisputable, but I am not interested in attempting to establish the strength of that connection. This would, in any case, be an impossible task without some reductionist definition of both terms. Instead, my interest here is to explore some of the parallels between the two, and, in the spirit of the topic, I’d like to do this by comparing the behaviours of behaviourists and adaptive learning scientists.

Data and theory

Both behaviourism and adaptive learning (in its big data form) are centrally concerned with behaviour – capturing and measuring it in an objective manner. In both, experimental observation and the collection of ‘facts’ (physical, measurable, behavioural occurrences) precede any formulation of theory. John Mills’ description of behaviourists could apply equally well to adaptive learning scientists: theory construction was a seesaw process whereby one began with crude outgrowths from observations and slowly created one’s theory in such a way that one could make more and more precise observations, building those observations into the theory at each stage. No behaviourist ever considered the possibility of taking existing comprehensive theories of mind and testing or refining them.[3]

Positivism and the panopticon

Both behaviourism and adaptive learning are pragmatically positivist, believing that truth can be established by the study of facts. J. B. Watson, the founding father of behaviourism whose article ‘Psychology as the Behaviorist Views Itset the behaviourist ball rolling, believed that experimental observation could ‘reveal everything that can be known about human beings’[4]. Jose Ferreira of Knewton has made similar claims: We get five orders of magnitude more data per user than Google does. We get more data about people than any other data company gets about people, about anything — and it’s not even close. We’re looking at what you know, what you don’t know, how you learn best. […] We know everything about what you know and how you learn best because we get so much data. Digital data analytics offer something that Watson couldn’t have imagined in his wildest dreams, but he would have approved.

happiness industryThe revolutionary science

Big data (and the adaptive learning which is a part of it) is presented as a game-changer: The era of big data challenges the way we live and interact with the world. […] Society will need to shed some of its obsession for causality in exchange for simple correlations: not knowing why but only what. This overturns centuries of established practices and challenges our most basic understanding of how to make decisions and comprehend reality[5]. But the reverence for technology and the ability to reach understandings of human beings by capturing huge amounts of behavioural data was adumbrated by Watson a century before big data became a widely used term. Watson’s 1913 lecture at Columbia University was ‘a clear pitch’[6] for the supremacy of behaviourism, and its potential as a revolutionary science.

Prediction and controlnudge

The fundamental point of both behaviourism and adaptive learning is the same. The research practices and the theorizing of American behaviourists until the mid-1950s, writes Mills[7] were driven by the intellectual imperative to create theories that could be used to make socially useful predictions. Predictions are only useful to the extent that they can be used to manipulate behaviour. Watson states this very baldly: the theoretical goal of psychology is the prediction and control of behaviour[8]. Contemporary iterations of behaviourism, such as behavioural economics or nudge theory (see, for example, Thaler & Sunstein’s best-selling ‘Nudge’, Penguin Books, 2008), or the British government’s Behavioural Insights Unit, share the same desire to divert individual activity towards goals (selected by those with power), ‘without either naked coercion or democratic deliberation’[9]. Jose Ferreira of Knewton has an identical approach: We can predict failure in advance, which means we can pre-remediate it in advance. We can say, “Oh, she’ll struggle with this, let’s go find the concept from last year’s materials that will help her not struggle with it.” Like the behaviourists, Ferreira makes grand claims about the social usefulness of his predict-and-control technology: The end is a really simple mission. Only 22% of the world finishes high school, and only 55% finish sixth grade. Those are just appalling numbers. As a species, we’re wasting almost four-fifths of the talent we produce. […] I want to solve the access problem for the human race once and for all.

Ethics

Because they rely on capturing large amounts of personal data, both behaviourism and adaptive learning quickly run into ethical problems. Even where informed consent is used, the subjects must remain partly ignorant of exactly what is being tested, or else there is the fear that they might adjust their behaviour accordingly. The goal is to minimise conscious understanding of what is going on[10]. For adaptive learning, the ethical problem is much greater because of the impossibility of ensuring the security of this data. Everything is hackable.

Marketing

Behaviourism was seen as a god-send by the world of advertising. J. B. Watson, after a front-page scandal about his affair with a student, and losing his job at John Hopkins University, quickly found employment on Madison Avenue. ‘Scientific advertising’, as practised by the Mad Men from the 1920s onwards, was based on behaviourism. The use of data analytics by Google, Amazon, et al is a direct descendant of scientific advertising, so it is richly appropriate that adaptive learning is the child of data analytics.

[1] Hunter, D. and Smith, R. (2012) ‘Unpacking the past: “CLT” through ELTJ keywords’. ELT Journal, 66/4: 430-439.

[2] Kara, N. & Sevim, N. 2013. ‘Adaptive learning systems: beyond teaching machines’, Contemporary Educational Technology, 4(2), 108-120

[3] Mills, J. A. (1998) Control: A History of Behavioral Psychology. New York: New York University Press, p.5

[4] Davies, W. (2015) The Happiness Industry. London: Verso. p.91

[5] Mayer-Schönberger, V. & Cukier, K. (2013) Big Data. London: John Murray, p.7

[6] Davies, W. (2015) The Happiness Industry. London: Verso. p.87

[7] Mills, J. A. (1998) Control: A History of Behavioral Psychology. New York: New York University Press, p.2

[8] Watson, J. B. (1913) ‘Behaviorism as the Psychologist Views it’ Psychological Review 20: 158

[9] Davies, W. (2015) The Happiness Industry. London: Verso. p.88

[10] Davies, W. (2015) The Happiness Industry. London: Verso. p.92

It’s a good time to be in Turkey if you have digital ELT products to sell. Not so good if you happen to be an English language learner. This post takes a look at both sides of the Turkish lira.

OUP, probably the most significant of the big ELT publishers in Turkey, recorded ‘an outstanding performance’ in the country in the last financial year, making it their 5th largest ELT market. OUP’s annual report for 2013 – 2014 describes the particularly strong demand for digital products and services, a demand which is now influencing OUP’s global strategy for digital resources. When asked about the future of ELT, Peter Marshall , Managing Director of OUP’s ELT Division, suggested that Turkey was a country that could point us in the direction of an answer to the question. Marshall and OUP will be hoping that OUP’s recently launched Digital Learning Platform (DLP) ‘for the global distribution of adult and secondary ELT materials’ will be an important part of that future, in Turkey and elsewhere. I can’t think of any good reason for doubting their belief.

tbl-ipad1OUP aren’t the only ones eagerly checking the pound-lira exchange rates. For the last year, CUP also reported ‘significant sales successes’ in Turkey in their annual report . For CUP, too, it was a year in which digital development has been ‘a top priority’. CUP’s Turkish success story has been primarily driven by a deal with Anadolu University (more about this below) to provide ‘a print and online solution to train 1.7 million students’ using their Touchstone course. This was the biggest single sale in CUP’s history and has inspired publishers, both within CUP and outside, to attempt to emulate the deal. The new blended products will, of course, be adaptive.

Just how big is the Turkish digital ELT pie? According to a 2014 report from Ambient Insight , revenues from digital ELT products reached $32.0 million in 2013. They are forecast to more than double to $72.6 million in 2018. This is a growth rate of 17.8%, a rate which is practically unbeatable in any large economy, and Turkey is the 17th largest economy in the world, according to World Bank statistics .

So, what makes Turkey special?

  • Turkey has a large and young population that is growing by about 1.4% each year, which is equivalent to approximately 1 million people. According to the Turkish Ministry of Education, there are currently about 5.5 million students enrolled in upper-secondary schools. Significant growth in numbers is certain.
  • Turkey is currently in the middle of a government-sponsored $990 million project to increase the level of English proficiency in schools. The government’s target is to position the country as one of the top ten global economies by 2023, the centenary of the Turkish Republic, and it believes that this position will be more reachable if it has a population with the requisite foreign language (i.e. English) skills. As part of this project, the government has begun to introduce English in the 1st grade (previously it was in the 4th grade).
  • The level of English in Turkey is famously low and has been described as a ‘national weakness’. In October/November 2011, the Turkish research institute SETA and the Turkish Ministry for Youth and Sports conducted a large survey across Turkey of 10,174 young citizens, aged 15 to 29. The result was sobering: 59 per cent of the young people said they “did not know any foreign language.” A recent British Council report (2013) found the competence level in English of most (90+%) students across Turkey was evidenced as rudimentary – even after 1000+ hours (estimated at end of Grade 12) of English classes. This is, of course, good news for vendors of English language learning / teaching materials.
  • Turkey has launched one of the world’s largest educational technology projects: the FATIH Project (The Movement to Enhance Opportunities and Improve Technology). One of its objectives is to provide tablets for every student between grades 5 and 12. At the same time, according to the Ambient report , the intention is to ‘replace all print-based textbooks with digital content (both eTextbooks and online courses).’
  • Purchasing power in Turkey is concentrated in a relatively small number of hands, with the government as the most important player. Institutions are often very large. Anadolu University, for example, is the second largest university in the world, with over 2 million students, most of whom are studying in virtual classrooms. There are two important consequences of this. Firstly, it makes scalable, big-data-driven LMS-delivered courses with adaptive software a more attractive proposition to purchasers. Secondly, it facilitates the B2B sales model that is now preferred by vendors (including the big ELT publishers).
  • Turkey also has a ‘burgeoning private education sector’, according to Peter Marshall, and a thriving English language school industry. According to Ambient ‘commercial English language learning in Turkey is a $400 million industry with over 600 private schools across the country’. Many of these are grouped into large chains (see the bullet point above).
  • Turkey is also ‘in the vanguard of the adoption of educational technology in ELT’, according to Peter Marshall. With 36 million internet users, the 5th largest internet population in Europe, and the 3rd highest online engagement in Europe, measured by time spent online, (reported by Sina Afra ), the country’s enthusiasm for educational technology is not surprising. Ambient reports that ‘the growth rate for mobile English educational apps is 27.3%’. This enthusiasm is reflected in Turkey’s thriving ELT conference scene. The most popular conference themes and conference presentations are concerned with edtech. A keynote speech by Esat Uğurlu at the ISTEK schools 3rd international ELT conference at Yeditepe in April 2013 gives a flavour of the current interests. The talk was entitled ‘E-Learning: There is nothing to be afraid of and plenty to discover’.

All of the above makes Turkey a good place to be if you’re selling digital ELT products, even though the competition is pretty fierce. If your product isn’t adaptive, personalized and gamified, you may as well not bother.

What impact will all this have on Turkey’s English language learners? A report co-produced by TEPAV (the Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey) and the British Council in November 2013 suggests some of the answers, at least in the school population. The report  is entitled ‘Turkey National Needs Assessment of State School English Language Teaching’ and its Executive Summary is brutally frank in its analysis of the low achievements in English language learning in the country. It states:

The teaching of English as a subject and not a language of communication was observed in all schools visited. This grammar-based approach was identified as the first of five main factors that, in the opinion of this report, lead to the failure of Turkish students to speak/ understand English on graduation from High School, despite having received an estimated 1000+ hours of classroom instruction.

In all classes observed, students fail to learn how to communicate and function independently in English. Instead, the present teacher-centric, classroom practice focuses on students learning how to answer teachers’ questions (where there is only one, textbook-type ‘right’ answer), how to complete written exercises in a textbook, and how to pass a grammar-based test. Thus grammar-based exams/grammar tests (with right/wrong answers) drive the teaching and learning process from Grade 4 onwards. This type of classroom practice dominates all English lessons and is presented as the second causal factor with respect to the failure of Turkish students to speak/understand English.

The problem, in other words, is the curriculum and the teaching. In its recommendations, the report makes this crystal clear. Priority needs to be given to developing a revised curriculum and ‘a comprehensive and sustainable system of in-service teacher training for English teachers’. Curriculum renewal and programmes of teacher training / development are the necessary prerequisites for the successful implementation of a programme of educational digitalization. Unfortunately, research has shown again and again that these take a long time and outcomes are difficult to predict in advance.

By going for digitalization first, Turkey is taking a huge risk. What LMSs, adaptive software and most apps do best is the teaching of language knowledge (grammar and vocabulary), not the provision of opportunities for communicative practice (for which there is currently no shortage of opportunity … it is just that these opportunities are not being taken). There is a real danger, therefore, that the technology will push learning priorities in precisely the opposite direction to that which is needed. Without significant investments in curriculum reform and teacher training, how likely is it that the transmission-oriented culture of English language teaching and learning will change?

Even if the money for curriculum reform and teacher training were found, it is also highly unlikely that effective country-wide approaches to blended learning for English would develop before the current generation of tablets and their accompanying content become obsolete.

Sadly, the probability is, once more, that educational technology will be a problem-changer, even a problem-magnifier, rather than a problem-solver. I’d love to be wrong.

Duolingo testing

Posted: September 6, 2014 in testing
Tags: , , , , ,

After a break of two years, I recently returned to Duolingo in an attempt to build my German vocabulary. The attempt lasted a week. A few small things had changed, but the essentials had not, and my amusement at translating sentences like The duck eats oranges, A red dog wears white clothes or The fly is important soon turned to boredom and irritation. There are better, free ways of building vocabulary in another language.

Whilst little is new in the learning experience of Duolingo, there are significant developments at the company. The first of these is a new funding round in which they raised a further $20 million, bringing total investment to close to $40 million. Duolingo now has more than 25 million users, half of whom are described as ‘active’, and, according to Louis von Ahn,  the company’s founder, their ambition is to dominate the language learning market. Approaching their third anniversary, though, Duolingo will need, before long, to turn a profit or, at least, to break even. The original plan, to use the language data generated by users of the site to power a paying translation service, is beginning to bear fruit, with contracts with CNN and BuzzFeed. But Duolingo is going to need other income streams. This may well be part of the reason behind their decision to develop and launch their own test.

Duolingo’s marketing people, however, are trying to get another message across: Every year, over 30 million job seekers and students around the world are forced to take a test to prove that they know English in order to apply for a job or school. For some, these tests can cost their family an entire month’s salary. And not only that, taking them typically requires traveling to distant examination facilities and waiting weeks for the results. We believe there should be a better way. This is why today I’m proud to announce the beta release of the Duolingo Test Center, which was created to give everyone equal access to jobs and educational opportunities. Now anyone can conveniently certify their English skills from home, on their mobile device, and for only $20. That’s 1/10th the cost of existing tests. Talking the creative disruption talk, Duolingo wants to break into the “archaic” industry of language proficiency tests. Basically, then, they want to make the world a better place. I seem to have heard this kind of thing before.

The tests will cost $20. Gina Gotthilf , Duolingo’s head of marketing, explains the pricing strategy: We came up with the smallest value that works for us and that a lot of people can pay. Duolingo’s main markets are now the BRICS countries. In China, for example, 1.5 million people signed up with Duolingo in just one week in April of this year, according to @TECHINASIA . Besides China, Duolingo has expanded into India, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Vietnam and Indonesia this year. (Brazil already has 2.4 million users, and there are 1.5 million in Mexico.) That’s a lot of potential customers.

So, what do you get for your twenty bucks? Not a lot, is the short answer. The test lasts about 18 minutes. There are four sections, and adaptive software analyses the testee’s responses to determine the level of difficulty of subsequent questions. The first section requires users to select real English words from a list which includes invented words. The second is a short dictation, the third is a gapfill, and the fourth is a read-aloud task which is recorded and compared to a native-speaker norm. That’s it.Item types

Duolingo claims that the test scores correlate very well with TOEFL, but the claim is based on a single study by a University of Pittsburgh professor that was sponsored by Duolingo. Will further studies replicate the findings? I, for one, wouldn’t bet on it, but I won’t insult your intelligence by explaining my reasons. Test validity and reliability, then, remain to be proved, but even John Lehoczky , interim executive vice president of Carnegie Mellon University (Duolingo was developed by researchers from Carnegie Mellon’s computer science department) acknowledges that at this point [the test] is not a fit vehicle for undergraduate admissions.

Even more of a problem than validity and reliability, however, is the question of security. The test is delivered via the web or smartphone apps (Android and iOS). Testees have to provide photo ID and a photo taken on the device they are using. There are various rules (they must be alone, no headphones, etc) and a human proctor reviews the test after it has been completed. This is unlikely to impress authorities like the British immigration authorities, which recently refused to recognise online TOEFL and TOEIC qualifications, after a BBC documentary revealed ‘systematic fraud’ in the taking of these tests.

There will always be a market of sorts for valueless qualifications (think, for example, of all the cheap TEFL courses that can be taken online), but to break into the monopoly of TOEFL and IELTS (and soon perhaps Pearson), Duolingo will need to deal with the issues of validity, reliability and security. If they don’t, few – if any – institutions of higher education will recognise the test. But if they do, they’ll need to spend more money: a team of applied linguists with expertise in testing would be a good start, and serious proctoring doesn’t come cheap. Will they be able to do this and keep the price down to $20?

 

 

I already mentioned Evgeny Morozov’s To Save Everything, Click Here when I discussed his idea of ‘solutionism’. Even if you don’t agree with everything he writes, he is always interesting to read. In a recent review article for the New York Times he looks at two new books, The Naked Future: What Happens in a World That Anticipates Your Every Move? by Patrick Tucker, and Social Physics: How Good Ideas Spread — The Lessons From a New Science by Alex Pentland.

Morozov takes a critical, philosophical look at the way that big data might impact on our lives, and the article is well worth a read. For an entertaining fictional take on Big Data, Dave Eggers’ dystopia, The Circle, is a novel worth packing in your suitcase next time you have to go somewhere.

dave_eggers_the_circle_large_verge_medium_landscape

morozov

Pearson’s ‘Efficacy’ initiative is a series of ‘commitments designed to measure and increase the company’s impact on learning outcomes around the world’. The company’s dedicated website  offers two glossy brochures with a wide range of interesting articles, a good questionnaire tool that can be used by anyone to measure the efficacy of their own educational products or services, as well as an excellent selection of links to other articles, some of which are critical of the initiative. These include Michael Feldstein’s long blog post  ‘Can Pearson Solve the Rubric’s Cube?’ which should be a first port of call for anyone wanting to understand better what is going on.

What does it all boil down to? The preface to Pearson’s ‘Asking More: the Path to Efficacy’ by CEO John Fallon provides a succinct introduction. Efficacy in education, says Fallon, is ‘making a measurable impact on someone’s life through learning’. ‘Measurable’ is the key word, because, as Fallon continues, ‘it is increasingly possible to determine what works and what doesn’t in education, just as in healthcare.’ We need ‘a relentless focus’ on ‘the learning outcomes we deliver’ because it is these outcomes that can be measured in ‘a systematic, evidence-based fashion’. Measurement, of course, is all the easier when education is delivered online, ‘real-time learner data’ can be captured, and the power of analytics can be deployed.

Pearson are very clearly aligning themselves with recent moves towards a more evidence-based education. In the US, Obama’s Race to the Top is one manifestation of this shift. Britain (with, for example, the Education Endowment Foundation) and France (with its Fonds d’Expérimentation pour la Jeunesse ) are both going in the same direction. Efficacy is all about evidence-based practice.

Both the terms ‘efficacy’ and ‘evidence-based practice’ come originally from healthcare. Fallon references this connection in the quote two paragraphs above. In the UK last year, Ben Goldacre (medical doctor, author of ‘Bad Science’ and a relentless campaigner against pseudo-science) was commissioned by the UK government to write a paper entitled ‘Building Evidence into Education’ . In this, he argued for the need to introduce randomized controlled trials into education in a similar way to their use in medicine.

As Fallon observed in the preface to the Pearson ‘Efficacy’ brochure, this all sounds like ‘common sense’. But, as Ben Goldacre discovered, things are not so straightforward in education. An excellent article in The Guardian outlined some of the problems in Goldacre’s paper.

With regard to ELT, Pearson’s ‘Efficacy’ initiative will stand or fall with the validity of their Global Scale of English, discussed in my March post ‘Knowledge Graphs’ . However, there are a number of other considerations that make the whole evidence-based / efficacy business rather less common-sensical than might appear at first glance.

  • The purpose of English language teaching and learning (at least, in compulsory education) is rather more than simply the mastery of grammatical and lexical systems, or the development of particular language skills. Some of these other purposes (e.g. the development of intercultural competence or the acquisition of certain 21st century skills, such as creativity) continue to be debated. There is very little consensus about the details of what these purposes (or outcomes) might be, or how they can be defined. Without consensus about these purposes / outcomes, it is not possible to measure them.
  • Even if we were able to reach a clear consensus, many of these outcomes do not easily lend themselves to measurement, and even less to low-cost measurement.
  • Although we clearly need to know what ‘works’ and what ‘doesn’t work’ in language teaching, there is a problem in assigning numerical values. As the EduThink blog observes, ‘the assignation of numerical values is contestable, problematic and complex. As teachers and researchers we should be engaging with the complexity [of education] rather than the reductive simplicities of [assigning numerical values]’.
  • Evidence-based medicine has resulted in unquestionable progress, but it is not without its fierce critics. A short summary of the criticisms can be found here .  It would be extremely risky to assume that a contested research procedure from one discipline can be uncritically applied to another.
  • Kathleen Graves, in her plenary at IATEFL 2014, ‘The Efficiency of Inefficiency’, explicitly linked health care and language teaching. She described a hospital where patient care was as much about human relationships as it was about medical treatment, an aspect of the hospital that went unnoticed by efficiency experts, since this could not be measured. See this blog for a summary of her talk.

These issues need to be discussed much further before we get swept away by the evidence-based bandwagon. If they are not, the real danger is that, as John Fallon cautions, we end up counting things that don’t really count, and we don’t count the things that really do count. Somehow, I doubt that an instrument like the Global Scale of English will do the trick.

‘Adaptive’ is a buzzword in the marketing of educational products. Chris Dragon, President of Pearson Digital Learning, complained on the Pearson Research blog. that there are so many EdTech providers claiming to be ‘adaptive’ that you have to wonder if they are not using the term too loosely. He talks about semantic satiation, the process whereby ‘temporary loss of meaning [is] experienced when one is exposed to the uninterrupted repetition of a word or phrase’. He then goes on to claim that Pearson’s SuccessMaker (‘educational software that differentiates and personalizes K-8 reading and math instruction’) is the real adaptive McCoy.

‘Adaptive’ is also a buzzword in marketing itself. Google the phrase ‘adaptive marketing’ and you’ll quickly come up with things like Adaptive Marketing Set to Become the Next Big Thing or Adaptive marketing changes the name of the game. Adaptive marketing is what you might expect: the use of big data to track customers and enable ‘marketers to truly tailor their activities in rapid and unparalleled ways to meet their customers’ interests and needs’ (Advertising Age, February 2012). It strikes me that this sets up an extraordinary potential loop: students using adaptive learning software that generates a huge amount of data which could then be used by adaptive marketers to sell other products.

I decided it might be interesting to look at the way one adaptive software company markets itself. Knewton, for example, which claims its products are more adaptive than anybody else’s.

Knewton clearly spend a lot of time and money on their marketing efforts. There is their blog and a magazine called ‘The Knerd’. There are very regular interviews by senior executives with newspapers, magazines and other blogs. There are very frequent conference presentations. All of these are easily accessible, so it is quite easy to trace Knewton’s marketing message. And even easier when they are so open about it. David Liu, Chief Operating Officer has given an interview  in which he outlines his company’s marketing strategy. Knewton, he says, focuses on driving organic interests and traffic. To that end, we have a digital marketing group that’s highly skilled and focused on creating content marketing so users, influencers and partners alike can understand our product, the value we bring and how to work with us. We also use a lot of advanced digital and online lead generation type of techniques to target potential partners and users to be able to get the right people in those discussions.

The message consists of four main strands, which I will call EdTech, EduCation, EduBusiness and EdUtopia. Depending on the audience, the marketing message will be adapted, with one or other of these strands given more prominence.

1 EdTech

Hardly surprisingly, Knewton focuses on what they call their ‘heavy duty infrastructure for an adaptive world’. They are very proud of their adaptive credentials, their ‘rigorous data science’. The basic message is that ‘only Knewton provides true personalization for any student, anywhere’. They are not shy of using technical jargon and providing technical details to prove their point.

2 EduCation

The key message here is effectiveness (Knewton also uses the term ‘efficacy’). Statistics about growth in pass rates and reduction in withdrawal rates at institutions are cited. At the same time, teachers are directly appealed to with statements like ‘as a teacher, you get tools you never had before’ and ‘teachers will be able to add their own content, upload it, tag it and seamlessly use it’. Accompanying this fairly direct approach is a focus on buzz words and phrases which can be expected to resonate with teachers. Recent blog posts include in their headlines: ‘supporting creativity’, ‘student-centred learning’, ‘peer mentoring’, ‘formative evaluation’, ‘continuous assessment’, ‘learning styles’, ‘scaffolding instruction’, ‘real-world examples’, ‘enrichment’ or ‘lifelong learning’.

There is an apparent openness in Knewton’s readiness to communicate with the rest of the world. The blog invites readers to start discussions and post comments. Almost no one does. But one blog post by Jose Ferreira called ‘Rebooting Learning Styles’  provoked a flurry of highly critical and well-informed responses. These remain unanswered. A similar thing happened when David Liu did a guest post at eltjam. A flurry of criticism, but no response. My interpretation of this is that Knewton are a little scared of engaging in debate and of having their marketing message hijacked.

3 EduBusiness

Here’s a sample of ways that Knewton speak to potential customers and investors:

an enormous new market of online courses that bring high margin revenue and rapid growth for institutions that start offering them early and declining numbers for those who do not.

Because Knewton is trying to disrupt the traditional industry, we have nothing to lose—we’re not cannibalising ourselves—by partnering.

Unlike other groups dabbling in adaptive learning, Knewton doesn’t force you to buy pre-fabricated products using our own content. Our platform makes it possible for anyone — publishers, instructors, app developers, and others — to build her own adaptive applications using any content she likes.

The data platform industries tend to have a winner-take-all dynamic. You take that and multiply it by a very, very high-stakes product and you get an even more winner-take-all dynamic.

4 EdUtopia

I personally find this fourth strand the most interesting. Knewton are not unique in adopting this line, but it is a sign of their ambition that they choose to do so. All of the quotes that follow are from Jose Ferreira:

We can’t improve education by curing poverty. We have to cure poverty by improving education.

Edtech is our best hope to narrow — at scale — the Achievement Gap between rich and poor. Yet, for a time, it will increase that gap. Society must push past that unfortunate moment and use tech-assisted outcome improvements as the rationale to drive spending in poor schools.

I started Knewton to do my bit to fix the world’s education system. Education is among the most important problems we face, because it’s the ultimate “gateway” problem. That is, it drives virtually every global problem that we face as a species. But there’s a flip-side: if we can fix education, then we’ll dramatically improve the other problems, too. So in fact, I started Knewton not just to help fix education but to try to fix just about everything.

What if the girl who invents the cure for ovarian cancer is growing up in a Cambodian fishing village and otherwise wouldn’t have a chance? As distribution of technology continues to improve, adaptive learning will give her and similar students countless opportunities that they otherwise wouldn’t have.

But our ultimate vision – and what really motivated me to start the company – is to solve the access problem for the human race once and for all. Only 22% of the world finishes high school; only 55% finish sixth grade. This is a preventable tragedy. Adaptive learning can give students around the world access to high-quality education they wouldn’t otherwise have.

In Part 9 of the ‘guide’ on this blog (neo-liberalism and solutionism), I suggested that the major advocates of adaptive learning form a complex network of vested neo-liberal interests. Along with adaptive learning and the digital delivery of educational content, they promote a free-market, for-profit, ‘choice’-oriented (charter schools in the US and academies in the UK) ideology. The discourses of these advocates are explored in a fascinating article by Neil Selwyn, ‘Discourses of digital ‘disruption’ in education: a critical analysis’ which can be accessed here.

Stephen Ball includes a detailed chart of this kind of network in his ‘Global Education Inc.’ (Routledge 2012). I thought it would be interesting to attempt a similar, but less ambitious, chart of my own. Sugata Mitra’s plenary talk at the IATEFL conference yesterday has generated a lot of discussion, so I thought it would be interesting to focus on him. What such charts demonstrate very clearly is that there is a very close interlinking between EdTech advocacy and a wider raft of issues on the neo-liberal wish list. Adaptive learning developments (or, for example, schools in the cloud) need to be understood in a broader context … in the same way that Mitra, Tooley, Gates et al understand these technologies.

In order to understand the chart, you will need to look at the notes below. Many more nodes could be introduced, but I have tried my best to keep things simple. All of the information here is publicly available, but I found Stephen Ball’s work especially helpful.

mitra chart

People

Bill Gates is the former chief executive and chairman of Microsoft, co-chair of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

James Tooley is the Director of the E.G. West Centre. He is a founder of the Educare Trust, founder and chairman of Omega Schools, president of Orient Global, chairman of Rumi School of Excellence, and a former consultant to the International Finance Corporation. He is also a member of the advisory council of the Institute of Economic Affairs and was responsible for creating the Education and Training Unit at the Institute.

Michael Barber is Pearson’s Chief Education Advisor and Chairman of Pearson’s $15 million Affordable Learning Fund. He is also an advisor on ‘deliverology’ to the International Finance Corporation.

Sugata Mitra is Professor of Educational Technology at the E.G. West Centre and he is Chief Scientist, Emeritus, at NIIT. He is best known for his “Hole in the Wall” experiment. In 2013, he won the $1 million TED Prize to develop his idea of a ‘school-in-the-cloud’.

Institutions

Hiwel (Hole-in-the-Wall Education Limited) is the company behind Mitra’s “Hole in the Wall” experiment. It is a subsidiary of NIIT.

NIIT Limited is an Indian company based in Gurgaon, India that operates several for-profit higher education institutions.

Omega Schools is a privately held chain of affordable, for-profit schools based in Ghana.There are currently 38 schools educating over 20,000 students.

Orient Global is a Singapore-based investment group, which bought a $48 million stake in NIIT.

Pearson is … Pearson. Pearson’s Affordable Learning Fund was set up to invest in private companies committed to innovative approaches. Its first investment was a stake in Omega Schools.

Rumi Schools of Excellence is Orient Global’s chain of low-cost private schools in India, which aims to extend access and improve educational quality through affordable private schooling.

School-in-the-cloud is described by Mitra as’ a learning lab in India, where children can embark on intellectual adventures by engaging and connecting with information and mentoring online’. Microsoft are the key sponsors.

The E.G. West Centre of the University of Newcastle is dedicated to generating knowledge and understanding about how markets and self organising systems work in education.

The Educare Trustis a non-profit agency, formed in 2002 by Professor James Tooley of the University of Newcastle Upon Tyne, England, and other members associated with private unaided schools in India.It is advised by an international team from the University of Newcastle. It services include the running of a loan scheme for schools to improve their infrastructure and facilities.

The Institute of Economic Affairs is a right-wing free market think tank in London whose stated mission is to improve understanding of the fundamental institutions of a free society by analysing and expounding the role of markets in solving economic and social problems.

The International Finance Corporation is an international financial institution which offers investment, advisory, and asset management services to encourage private sector development in developing countries. The IFC is a member of the World Bank Group.

The Templeton Foundation is a philanthropic organization that funds inter-disciplinary research about human purpose and ultimate reality. Described by Barbara Ehrenreich as a ‘right wing venture’, it has a history of supporting the Cato Institute (publishers of Tooley’s most well-known book) , a libertarian think-tank, as well as projects at major research centers and universities that explore themes related to free market economics.

Additional connections

Barber is an old friend of Tooley’s from when both men were working in Zimbabwe in the 1990s.

Omega Schools are taking part in Sugata Mitra’s TED Prize Schools in the Cloud project.

Omega Schools use textbooks developed by Pearson.

Orient Global sponsored an Education Development fund at Newcastle University. The project leaders were Tooley and Mitra. They also sponsored the Hole-in-the-Wall experiment.

Pearson, the Pearson Foundation, Microsoft and the Gates Foundation work closely together on a wide variety of projects.

Some of Tooley’s work for the Educare Trust was funded by the Templeton Trust. Tooley was also winner of the 2006 Templeton Freedom Prize for Excellence.

The International Finance Corporation and the Gates Foundation are joint sponsors of a $60 million project to improve health in Nigeria.

The International Finance Corporation was another sponsor of the Hole-in-the-Wall experiment.

Let’s take a look at the business of adaptive learning from a publisher’s perspective. Not an ELT publisher, but someone a few rungs higher on the ladder with strategic responsibilities. You might not know a great deal about ELT. It is, after all, only one of a number of divisions you are responsible for, and not an especially profitable one at that. You will, however, know a lot about creative destruction, the process by which one industry is replaced by another. The decline and demise of printed magazines, newspapers and books, of book reviewers and traditional booksellers, and their replacement by digital products will be such a part of your professional knowledge that they hardly need to be mentioned. Graphs such as the one below from PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) will be terribly familiar. You will also be aware that the gales of creative destruction in publishing are blowing harder than ever before.

2014-03-31_1020

In fact, you probably owe your job to your ability to talk convincingly about creative destruction and how to profit from it. Whatever your particular strategy for the future might be, you will have noted the actions of others. You will have evaluated advice, such as the following, from Publishing Perspectives

  • Do not delay in taking action when there are clear signals of a decline in market value.
  • Trade your low-profit print assets (even though some may have limited digital value) for core product that has a higher likelihood of success and can be exploited digitally.
  • Look for an orderly transition from print to digital product which enables a company to reinvent itself.

You will be looking to invest in technology, and prioritizing the acquisition of technological expertise (through partnerships or the purchase of start-ups) over the development of traditional ELT products. Your company will be restructured, and possibly renamed, to facilitate the necessary changes.

You will also know that big data and analytics have already transformed other industries. And you will know that educational publishing is moving towards a winner-take-all business market, where ‘the best performers are able to capture a very large share of the rewards, and the remaining competitors are left with very little’ (Investopedia). Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee’s new book, The Second Machine Age (New York: Norton, 2014), argues that ‘each time a market becomes more digital, winner-take-all economics become a little more compelling …Digitization creates winner-take-all markets because [there are] enormous economies of scale, giving the market leader a huge cost advantage and room to beat the price of any competitor while still making a good profit’ (pp.153-155).

the second machine age

It is in this light that we need to understand the way that companies like Pearson and Macmillan are banking everything on a digital future. Laurie Harrison’s excellent blog post at eltjam  summarises the Pearson position: ‘the world’s biggest education publisher is spending £150m on a total restructure which involves an immediate move to digital learning, a focus on emerging markets, and a transformation from publisher to education services provider. If the English language learning market is worth $4billion a year, then Pearson still only have a very small chunk of it. And if you’re a company as successful and ambitious as Pearson, that just isn’t good enough – so a change of direction is needed. In order to deliver this change, the company have recently announced their new senior management team.’

Adaptive learning fits the new business paradigm perfectly. If the hype is to be believed, adaptive learning will be a game-changer. ‘The shifting of education from analog to digital is a one-time event in the history of the human race. At scale, it will have as big an effect on the world as indoor plumbing or electricity,’ writes Jose Ferreira of Knewton. ‘True disruption,’ he says elsewhere, ‘happens when entrepreneurs aim big and go after a giant problem, a problem that, if solved, would usher in an era of large-scale transformation across industries and nations. … Education is the last of the information industries to move online,’ he goes on. ‘When it breaks, it breaks fast. And that’s going to happen in the next five years. All the education content will go online in the next 10 years. And textbooks will go away. … Ultimately, all learning materials will be digital and they will all be adaptive.’

Ferreira clearly knows all about creative disruption. He also knows about winner-take-all markets. ‘The question is who is going to power [the] platform,’ he writes. ‘It’s probably going to be one or two companies’. He states his ambition for Knewton very clearly: ‘Knewton’s goal is to be like Amazon Web Services for education’. ‘It’s pretty clear to us,’ he writes, ‘that there’s going to be one dominant data platform for education, the way there’s one dominant data platform for search, social media, etailing. But in education, it’s going to be even more winner-take-all; there will be a number of companies that make up the platform, like Wintel. People might make a perverse choice to use Bing for search because they don’t like Google. But no one’s going to make the choice to subject their kid to the second-best adaptive learning platform, if that means there’s a 23% structural disadvantage. The data platform industries tend to have a winner-take-all dynamic. You take that and multiply it by a very, very high-stakes product and you get an even more winner-take-all dynamic.’

What is at stake in this winner-take-all market? Over to Jose Ferreira one more time: ‘The industry is massive. It’s so massive that virtually nobody I’ve met truly grasps how big it is. It’s beyond their frame of reference. The total amount of money (both public and private) spent annually exceeds all spending, both online and offline, of every other information industry combined: that is, all media, entertainment, games, news, software, Internet and mobile media, e-tailing, etc.’

But, still, a few questions continue to nag away at me. If all of this is so certain, why does Jose Ferreira feel the need to talk about it so much? If all of this is so certain, why don’t all the ELT publishers jump on the bandwagon? What sort of track record does economic forecasting have, anyway?

I mentioned the issue of privacy very briefly in Part 9 of the ‘Guide’, and it seems appropriate to take a more detailed look.

Adaptive learning needs big data. Without the big data, there is nothing for the algorithms to work on, and the bigger the data set, the better the software can work. Adaptive language learning will be delivered via a platform, and the data that is generated by the language learner’s interaction with the English language program on the platform is likely to be only one, very small, part of the data that the system will store and analyse. Full adaptivity requires a psychometric profile for each student.

It would make sense, then, to aggregate as much data as possible in one place. Besides the practical value in massively combining different data sources (in order to enhance the usefulness of the personalized learning pathways), such a move would possibly save educational authorities substantial amounts of money and allow educational technology companies to mine the rich goldmine of student data, along with the standardised platform specifications, to design their products.

And so it has come to pass. The Gates Foundation (yes, them again) provided most of the $100 million funding. A division of Murdoch’s News Corp built the infrastructure. Once everything was ready, a non-profit organization called inBloom was set up to run the thing. The inBloom platform is open source and the database was initially free, although this will change. Preliminary agreements were made with 7 US districts and involved millions of children. The data includes ‘students’ names, birthdates, addresses, social security numbers, grades, test scores, disability status, attendance, and other confidential information’ (Ravitch, D. ‘Reign of Error’ NY: Knopf, 2013, p. 235-236). Under federal law, this information can be ‘shared’ with private companies selling educational technology and services.

The edtech world rejoiced. ‘This is going to be a huge win for us’, said one educational software provider; ‘it’s a godsend for us,’ said another. Others are not so happy. If the technology actually works, if it can radically transform education and ‘produce game-changing outcomes’ (as its proponents claim so often), the price to be paid might just conceivably be worth paying. But the price is high and the research is not there yet. The price is privacy.

The problem is simple. InBloom itself acknowledges that it ‘cannot guarantee the security of the information stored… or that the information will not be intercepted when it is being transmitted.’ Experience has already shown us that organisations as diverse as the CIA or the British health service cannot protect their data. Hackers like a good challenge. So do businesses.

The anti-privatization (and, by extension, the anti-adaptivity) lobby in the US has found an issue which is resonating with electors (and parents). These dissenting voices are led by Class Size Matters, and their voice is being heard. Of the original partners of inBloom, only one is now left. The others have all pulled out, mostly because of concerns about privacy, although the remaining partner, New York, involves personal data on 2.7 million students, which can be shared without any parental notification or consent.

inbloom-student-data-bill-gates

This might seem like a victory for the anti-privatization / anti-adaptivity lobby, but it is likely to be only temporary. There are plenty of other companies that have their eyes on the data-mining opportunities that will be coming their way, and Obama’s ‘Race to the Top’ program means that the inBloom controversy will be only a temporary setback. ‘The reality is that it’s going to be done. It’s not going to be a little part. It’s going to be a big part. And it’s going to be put in place partly because it’s going to be less expensive than doing professional development,’ says Eva Baker of the Center for the Study of Evaluation at UCLA.

It is in this light that the debate about adaptive learning becomes hugely significant. Class Size Matters, the odd academic like Neil Selwyn or the occasional blogger like myself will not be able to reverse a trend with seemingly unstoppable momentum. But we are, collectively, in a position to influence the way these changes will take place.

If you want to find out more, check out the inBloom and Class Size Matters links. And you might like to read more from the news reports which I have used for information in this post. Of these, the second was originally published by Scientific American (owned by Macmillan, one of the leading players in ELT adaptive learning). The third and fourth are from Education Week, which is funded in part by the Gates Foundation.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/03/us-education-database-idUSBRE92204W20130303

http://www.salon.com/2013/08/01/big_data_puts_teachers_out_of_work_partner/

http://www.edweek.org/ew/articles/2014/01/08/15inbloom_ep.h33.html

http://blogs.edweek.org/edweek/marketplacek12/2013/12/new_york_battle_over_inBloom_data_privacy_heading_to_court.html